Roulette Bernoulli


  • Bernoulli’s principle formulated by Daniel Bernoulli states that as the speed of a moving fluid increases (liquid or gas), the pressure within the fluid decreases. Although Bernoulli deduced the law, it was Leonhard Euler who derived Bernoulli’s equation in its usual form in the year 1752.
  • Palace Casino is betting at a Roulette table. He is following a gambling strategy that is often used by prudent gamblers. He has dedicated a capital of $200 to this session with the plan of not winning more than $20. He invariably bets $1 on RED at each spin and plans to do continue playing.
Occupancy Probability for 38 Number Roulette Wheel
Roulette

European version of roulette with 37 numbers (with a single zero). However, the results can be.,M is a random variable with a Bernoulli distribution with (0) n. In the game of roulette, a wheel consists of 38 slots numbered 0, 00, 1, 2., 36. To play the game, a metal ball is spun around the wheel and is allowed to fall into one of the numbered slots. If the number of the slot the ball falls into matches the number you selected, you win $35; otherwise you lose $1. Complete parts (a) through (g) below. A)Construct a probability distribution for the. Bernoulli distribution Random number distribution that produces bool values according to a Bernoulli distribution, which is described by the following probability mass function: Where the probability of true is p and the probability of false is (1-p).


For our next problem, let us calculate the probabilty of getting all 38 numbers after spinning a roulette wheel 152 times.

(An American roulette wheel has the numbers 1 through 36 plus zero and double zero.)

STEP 1
To determine the number of all the results of spinning a 38 number roulette wheel 152 times we raise 'n' to the power of 'r':

38152
which equals
1.34 × 10240

Then in steps 2, 3, 4 and 5, we will determine how many of those 38152 spins, will contain all 38 numbers.

STEP 2
We must calculate each value of 'n' raised to the power of 'r'.
Rather than explain, this is much easier to show:

38152 = 1.34 × 10240
37152 = 2.33 × 10238
36152 = 3.61 × 10236
35152 = 4.99 × 10234
34152 = 6.09 × 10232
33152 = 6.52 × 10230
32152 = 6.06 × 10228
31152 = 4.86 × 10226
30152 = 3.33 × 10224
29152 = 1.93 × 10222
28152 = 9.29 × 10219
27152 = 3.69 × 10217
26152 = 1.19 × 10215
25152 = 3.07 × 10212
24152 = 6.20 × 10209
23152 = 9.61 × 10206
22152 = 1.12 × 10204
21152 = 9.49 × 10200
20152 = 5.71 × 10197
19152 = 2.35 × 10194
18152 = 6.33 × 10190
17152 = 1.07 × 10187
16152 = 1.06 × 10183
15152 = 5.83 × 10178
14152 = 1.63 × 10174
13152 = 2.09 × 10169
12152 = 1.09 × 10164
11152 = 1.96 × 10158
10152 = 1.00 × 10152
9152 = 1.11 × 10145
8152 = 1.86 × 10137
7152 = 2.85 × 10128
6152 = 1.90 × 10118
5152 = 1.75 × 10106
4152 = 3.26 × 1091
3152 = 3.33 × 1072
2152 = 5.71 × 1045
1152 = 1


STEP 3
Next, we calculate how many combinations can be made from 'n' objects for each value of 'n'.
Tthis is much easier to show than explain:

38 C 38 = 1
37 C 38 = 37
36 C 38 = 703
35 C 38 = 8,436
34 C 38 = 73,815
33 C 38 = 501,942
32 C 38 = 2,760,681
31 C 38 = 12,620,256
30 C 38 = 48,903,492
29 C 38 = 163,011,640
28 C 38 = 472,733,756
27 C 38 = 1,203,322,288
26 C 38 = 2,707,475,148
25 C 38 = 5,414,950,296
24 C 38 = 9,669,554,100
23 C 38 = 15,471,286,560
22 C 38 = 22,239,974,430
21 C 38 = 28,781,143,380
20 C 38 = 33,578,000,610
19 C 38 = 35,345,263,800
18 C 38 = 33,578,000,610
17 C 38 = 28,781,143,380
16 C 38 = 22,239,974,430
15 C 38 = 15,471,286,560
14 C 38 = 9,669,554,100
13 C 38 = 5,414,950,296
12 C 38 = 2,707,475,148
11 C 38 = 1,203,322,288
10 C 38 = 472,733,756
9 C 38 = 16,3011,640
8 C 38 = 48,903,492
7 C 38 = 12,620,256
6 C 38 = 2,760,681
5 C 38 = 501,942
4 C 38 = 73,815
3 C 38 = 8,436
2 C 38 = 703
1 C 38 = 38

Basically, this is saying that
38 objects can be chosen from a set of 38 in 1 way
37 objects can be chosen from a set of 38 in 37 ways
36 objects can be chosen from a set of 38 in 703 ways
.......................................................................................

2 objects can be chosen from a set of 38 in 703 ways
1 object can be chosen from a set of 38 in 38 ways


STEP 4
We then calculate the product of the first calculation of STEP 2 times the first calculation of STEP 3 and do so throughout all 38 numbers.

For example,
1.34 × 10240 × 1 = 1.34 × 10240
2.33 × 10238 × 37 = 8.84 × 10239
and so on
1.34 × 10240
8.84 × 10239
2.54 × 10239
4.21 × 10238
4.50 × 10237
3.27 × 10236
1.67 × 10235
6.14 × 10233
1.63 × 10232
3.14 × 10230
4.39 × 10228
4.44 × 10226
3.22 × 10224
1.66 × 10222
5.99 × 10219
1.49 × 10217
2.49 × 10214
2.73 × 10211
1.92 × 10208
8.30 × 10204
2.13 × 10201
3.07 × 10197
2.36 × 10193
9.02 × 10188
1.57 × 10184
1.13 × 10179
2.94 × 10173
2.36 × 10167
4.73 × 10160
1.81 × 10153
9.1 × 10144
3.60 × 10135
5.25 × 10124
8.79 × 10111
2.41 × 1096
2.81 × 1076
4.01 × 1048
38
Total
1.36 × 10240


STEP 5
Then, alternating from plus to minus, we sum the 38 terms we just calculated.

+ 1.34 × 10240
- 8.84 × 10239
+ 2.54 × 10239
- 4.21 × 10238
+ 4.50 × 10237
- 3.27 × 10236
+ 1.67 × 10235
- 6.14 × 10233
+ 1.63 × 10232
- 3.14 × 10230
+ 4.39 × 10228
- 4.44 × 10226
+ 3.22 × 10224
- 1.66 × 10222
+ 5.99 × 10219
- 1.49 × 10217
+ 2.49 × 10214
- 2.73 × 10211
+ 1.92 × 10208
- 8.30 × 10204
+ 2.13 × 10201
- 3.07 × 10197
+ 2.36 × 10193
- 9.02 × 10188
+ 1.57 × 10184
- 1.13 × 10179
+ 2.94 × 10173
- 2.36 × 10167
+ 4.73 × 10160
- 1.81 × 10153
+ 9.10 × 10144
- 3.60 × 10135
+ 5.25 × 10124
- 8.79 × 10111
+ 2.41 × 1096
- 2.81 × 1076
+ 4.01 × 1048
- 38
Total
+ 6.72 × 10239
6.72 × 10239 equals the total number of ways a 38 number
roulette wheel will show all 38 numbers after 152 spins.

STEP 6
So, if we take the number
1.36 × 10240 (all results of spinning a 38 number roulette wheel 152 times)
and divide it by
6.72 × 10239 (all results of all 38 numbers appearing after 152 spins),
we get the probability of rolling all 38 numbers appearing after 152 spins.
Probability = 6.72 × 10239 ÷ 1.34 × 10240 = 0.501599170962349

Basically, you would have to spin a roulette wheel at least 152 times in order to have a better than 50 / 50 chance of spinning all 152 numbers.


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Bernoulli Distribution

Overview

The Bernoulli distribution is a discrete probability distribution with only two possible values for the random variable. Each instance of an event with a Bernoulli distribution is called a Bernoulli trial.

Parameters

The Bernoulli distribution uses the following parameter.

ParameterDescriptionSupport
pProbability of success0p1

Probability Density Function

The probability density function (pdf) of the Bernoulli distribution is

For discrete distributions, the pdf is also known as the probability mass function (pmf).

Roulette Bernoulli

For an example, see Compute Bernoulli Distribution pdf.

Cumulative Distribution Function

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the Bernoulli distribution is

For an example, see Compute Bernoulli Distribution cdf.

Descriptive Statistics

Roulette

The mean of the Bernoulli distribution is p.

The variance of the Bernoulli distribution is p(1 – p).

Examples

Compute Bernoulli Distribution pdf

The Bernoulli distribution is a special case of the binomial distribution, where N = 1. Use binopdf to compute the pdf of the Bernoulli distribution with the probability of success 0.75.

Plot the pdf with bars of width 1.

Compute Bernoulli Distribution cdf

The Bernoulli distribution is a special case of the binomial distribution, where N = 1. Use binocdf to compute the cdf of the Bernoulli distribution with the probability of success 0.75.

Plot the cdf.

Related Distributions

  • Binomial Distribution — The binomial distribution is a two-parameter discrete distribution that models the total number of successes in repeated Bernoulli trials. The Bernoulli distribution occurs as a binomial distribution with N = 1.

  • Geometric Distribution — The geometric distribution is a one-parameter discrete distribution that models the total number of failures before the first success in repeated Bernoulli trials.

References

Bernoulli

[1] Abramowitz, Milton, and Irene A. Stegun, eds. Handbook of Mathematical Functions: With Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. 9. Dover print.; [Nachdr. der Ausg. von 1972]. Dover Books on Mathematics. New York, NY: Dover Publ, 2013.

[2] Evans, Merran, Nicholas Hastings, and Brian Peacock. Statistical Distributions. 2nd ed. New York: J. Wiley, 1993.

See Also

Roulette Bernoulli Experiment

Related Topics